Law and Order is Inevitable
The Inevitability of figures like Ronald Reagan and Nayib Bukele
I do want to make something clear at the start of this. When I talk about the impending rise of Law and Order figures and policies, I don’t mean that as a good thing. I’m not applauding these figures or salivating at the mouth for their campaigns. I’m merely guessing based on historical trends and present examples.
The Success of Nayib Bukele
Nayib Bukele is the 43rd president of El Salvador and just accomplished something incredible. The murder rate has dropped like a stone. It’s more than halved two years in a row and is way down from a high in 2015. El Salvador used to be one of the most violent countries on our side of the pond, and held the title for having the highest rates of gang-related crime on the fucking planet.
That’s changed.
On March 26th, 2022, 62 people were murdered in San Salvador, and Bukele initiated a crackdown. A crackdown he’s become notorious for.
Imagine every right we have related to criminal justice being stripped away. Gone. Prison sentences were doubled or tripled in some cases, and the age of criminal responsibility was dropped from 16 to 12 years old.
There were checkpoints, ID checks, searches, and if the police decided you were too sketchy, start stripping because they’re going to check you for contraband and gang tattoos.
It all worked, and the people love him for it. He has an approval rating of 90%, according to some firms. He won the last election with almost 85% of the popular vote. When asked, the people of El Salvador overwhelmingly chose safety over liberty.
State Side
We see a similar phenomenon here in the states, law and order administrations, and characters like Rudy Giuliani, Nixon, and Reagan.
According to the book Crime & Politics: Big Government's Erratic Campaign for Law and Order, anti-crime bills were popular; why wouldn’t they be? This is the era of the war on drugs and the crack epidemic. 1980 was an incredibly violent year, with a record number of violent crimes and homicides.
Then there was the case of Adam Walsh, a six-year-old boy who was kidnapped in 1981, kicking off this media shitshow.
News accounts using dubious estimates implied that anywhere from 4,000 to 50,000 youngsters each year were being plucked bystrangers and then molested or murdered. The proved cases indeed were horrifying, but studies in later years established that the actual number of abductions by strangers was only about 100 each year; most of the others involved runaways or divorce- custody squabbles.
From Crime & Politics: Big Government's Erratic Campaign for Law and Order
Crime in the 80s, public perception, and the 1984 crime bill changed how crime was handled in the US. Civil asset forfeiture, sentencing guidelines, the repeal of Habeus Corpus in death penalty appeals, and, of course, Reagan’s mass incarceration, which led to the prison industrial complex we know and love today.
Rudy Giuliani is widely credited with “cleaning up Times Square.” Whether he did is a complicated answer. Times Square used to be filthy and dangerous, but then it wasn’t. After Rudy Giuliani implemented tougher policing along with his broken windows' theory, crime rates fell and continued to fall in New York.
We see this resurgence of law and order on the West Coast today. Officials in Portland are bringing back punishments for drug crimes.
The “drugs are legal in Portland” policy is over; possession of opiates and meth is now a misdemeanor with a six-month sentence. San Francisco voters approved a measure that would screen would-be welfare users for drug use.
What am I Trying to Say?
The American public believes that crime is worsening. It isn't; we know for a fact that crime rates are falling, but the people don’t feel that way.
They see videos of addicts spun out in the middle of the street in big cities.
They see how much of a shitshow Skid Row is in LA.
They see news stories about how a handful of people are responsible for thousands of crimes.
They read news stories about immigrants arrested several times for violent crimes only to be let go to go reoffend again.
People see a news story about a random woman being punched in the face for No Fucking Reason and want something to be done.
Progressives and liberals can talk all day about how poverty causes crime, restorative justice, and rehabilitation for the perpetrator. That all pales in comparison to just locking someone up for a few years in the eyes of the voters.
They don’t care.
Improved welfare, prison reform, law and order reform, and meeting people's needs takes time and implementation. Oregon famously failed their implementation. New York City has the national guard and experimental gun detectors in its subway system. Even in liberal bastions, these policies are coming to an end.
What’s the solution to mentally disturbed people being pushed on the tracks, or women being randomly punched in the face?
A candidate will come up with an immediate answer that the people will like.
Lock Them Up.
Consequences
Here in the States, we know the consequences of Law and Order administrations. We know the damage Reagan did with deinstitutionalization and the ‘84 crime bill.
There’s a debate about whether Reagan even lowered the crime rate. Reports of violent crime went up, but that could mean a lot of things. Giuliani was building off of years of work when he cleaned up Times Square. There’s an argument to be made that he was just the right guy at the right time.
Every article discussing Bukele brings up his authoritarian streak. There’s a possibility 1 in 6 people arrests in El Salvador are innocent. The administration admits that but keeps on going. The human rights abuses are very real and could turn on Bukele and/or the people at any minute.
Sometime in the near future, a candidate will come along, promising to clean up America. They might get voted in; I’d bet on it, even. The American people want to feel safe in their cities, and if a few addicts and violent psychos get locked up, then awesome.
They will get elected, and just like all the others before, we will suffer because of it.
This has been Michael Vincent Hawthorne. I highly recommend checking out Crime & Politics: Big Government's Erratic Campaign for Law and Order. It has several examples of Washington D.C. being terrible at governance and Biden being a shithead.
Till next week.
This is a really, really good post.
The takeaway here, for me, is that public perception of policy is incredibly important! So, political people, remember that before you say crazy crap! Will the other side say unfair crud about you? Yep. Sound as gobsmackingly normal and sane as you can. Does this mean that sometimes maybe your preferred policy has to be slowed down or held off? Yes. As a guy with a bunch of weirdo ideas, I feel your pain. But try your damndest to sound normal. You know why Biden won the nomination and the election? Because he was the most normal sounding one. If you can slide in your preferred, more extreme policy under the radar, by all means do. But make it sound boringly normal fer chrissakes (and make sure it works!).